Letture per il fine settimana 19-9-2015

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taly is very close to the situation that economists call a ‘debt trap’, that is to say when the debt ratio rises exponentially. From this the only escape is through inflation or default. Italy cannot inflate while it has no separate currency. So, unless something big starts to change pretty soon, Italy is on course for the mother and father of sovereign default.

When Münchau in his piece writes for instance that

 Italy needs changes in the legal system, it needs to bring taxes down to the Eurozone average, and to improve the quality and efficiency of the public sector. It needs, in other words, to change the entire political system

Questa cosa mi risulta tutt'ora incomprensibile:

-Japan’s national debt stands currently over 230% of GDP, but Tokyo is still regarded as a solvable creditor, in essence because Japan’s debt is expressed in the national currency. The case of Italy is notoriously difficult, since the Euro can effectively be considered as foreign currency.-

Dal momento che fare default su un debito o pagarlo in moneta svalutata e' la stessa cosa e comporta lo stesso rischio, cosa di cui i mercati sembrano consapevoli, con rendimenti trentennali comparabili, perche' capita sovente di leggere che avere a disposizione una sola delle due possibilita' per non pagare il proprio debito sia una situazione peggiore rispetto ad avere l'altra o entrambe?