Titolo

Le origini regionali del debito pubblico Italiano

1 commento (espandi tutti)

Ci saremmo aspettati che la relazione tra deficit e reddito pro capite nel tempo fosse negativa invece per il Mezzogiorno è positiva (ma non singificativa). Mentre il deficit sembra spiegato dalla variabile peso degli eletti della macroregione nel governo.




Table 3.1              General models

OLS regression results for the Italian macro-regions; sample period 1965-2007.

Dependent variable: Government Surplus as percentage of GDP (GS)

 

Regressors

North-west

North-east

Center

South

CONST.

 

-29.7995

(46.869)

10.326***

(43.174)

-245.0410**

(112.8641)

-127.882

(191.151)

RPOP(-2)

 

27.626

(133.645)

1265.819***

(213.996)

427.903

(393.366)

621.677*

(324.076)

RYPC(-2)

 

21.088 (12.521)

60.936***

(9.882)

133.913*

(76.091)

-167.336

(131.216)

PW(-2)

 

-0.346 (10.326)

6.583

(11.758)

62.284***

(9.884)

-17.042

(11.0505)

 

 

 

 

 

Adj. R-squared

0.012

0.748

0.570

0.387

S.E. of Regression

2.729

1.945

3.316

5.416

N. obs.

43

43

43

43

Notes: *, **, *** denote significant at the 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively.

Newey and West’s s.e. are reported in parentheses.

 

 

 

 Table 3.2             Final models

Regression results for the Italian macro-regions; sample period 1963-2007.

Dependent variable: Government Surplus as percentage of GDP (GS)

 

Regressors

North-west

North-east

Center

South

CONST.

 

-22.440**

(10.784)

-299.830***

(37.301)

-186.136**

(83.882)

-297.37***

(86.960)

RPOP(-2)

 

 

1235.437***

(197.662)

 

789.188***

(236.990)

RYPC(-2)

 

21.016** (8.196)

59.898***

(9.052)

155.066*

(78.068)

 

PW(-2)

 

 

 

60.085***

(8.374)

-28.374**

(11.377)

 

 

 

 

 

Adj. R-squared

0.097

0.750

0.570

0.355

S.E. of Regression

2.604

1.936

3.250

5.557

N. obs.

45

43

45

43

Notes: *, **, *** denote significant at the 10%, 5% and 1% levels, respectively.

Newey and West’s s.e. are reported in parentheses.